I am a Ph.D. Candidate at the University of Mannheim (Area Accounting & Taxation) and the ZEW (Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research).

My research interests lie at the intersection of taxation, accounting, and public economics. I enjoy exploring new data sources and combining established economic methods with approaches from studying social and economic networks. My work uses these tools to examine responses to policy interventions, peer effects, tax compliance, and economic fraud.

Feel free to reach out anytime via johannes.gaul@uni-mannheim.de.
You can find my CV here.

Job Market Paper

The Effect of Global Anti Tax Avoidance Efforts on Sub-National Profit Shifting with Inga Schulz. | Paper | Abstract

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This paper examines whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) adapt to international anti–tax avoidance regulation by intensifying domestic profit shifting activities. We compile a novel dataset by mapping MNE ownership network structures that link international to sub-national tax haven subsidiaries over time. Our analyses show that tighter international rules cause more strongly affected firms to intensify their presence in sub-national tax havens, consistent with strong increases in profit tax revenues at these locations. This shift indicates that international tax policies have had bite in constraining cross-border tax avoidance. At the same time, our findings reveal MNEs’ strategic flexibility and highlight domestic spillovers and local consequences of global tax reforms.

Publications

Invitation Messages for Business Surveys: A Multi-Armed Bandit Experiment with Florian Keusch, Davud Rostam-Afschar and Thomas Simon. Survey Research Methods, 19(4), 409–429, 2025.

Working Papers

OECD Pillar Two Compliance Costs: A Quantitative Assessment for EU-Headquartered Groups with Sean Bray, Daniel Bunn and Christoph Spengel. | Paper | Abstract

One-off cost projection Ongoing cost projection

This study examines the compliance costs of OECD Pillar Two, i.e., the "Global Minimum Tax," for multinational enterprises headquartered in the European Union. Collecting data from chief financial officers and heads of finance or tax departments, we estimate compliance cost determinants and subsequently predict the overall compliance burden. Results indicate total one-off costs of about EUR 1.2 billion (up to EUR 2.0 billion) and total recurring costs of EUR 517 million EUR p.a. (up to EUR 865 million EUR p.a.). Our findings inform the public discourse by mitigating information asymmetries between policymakers and corporations. Moreover, we contribute by establishing a cost benchmark to facilitate a systematic cost-benefit evaluation of this policy.

Beyond Content: Investors’ Chatter, Interaction and Earnings Announcement Returns with Pascal Schrader and Thomas Steffen. | Paper | Abstract

Excerpt of investor conversation networks

We study the relationship between investors’ social media activity and earnings announcement returns. To distinguish between information contained in peer-to-peer interaction and user-posted content, we analyze conversation networks on Reddit using centrality metrics from network science and classify user sentiment with large language models. We show that pre-announcement sentiment is positively associated with short-term cumulative abnormal returns only if it does not spark pre-announcement controversy. If pre-announcement controversy arises, we document a negative association. Our findings present a more nuanced view on the wisdom of crowds hypothesis, highlighting that peer-to-peer interaction on social media exhibits a pattern of normalization, and thus contains informational value beyond content.

Tax Competition Networks with Zareh Asatryan. | Available upon request. | Abstract

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Although spatial interactions are in principle dependent on networks, the empirical literature on tax competition has thus far used matrices of generic form to model policy reactions. We address this gap in the literature in two ways. First, we analyze the arguments of local policy makers in debates on local tax reforms. We find that local politicians reference peers selectively to suit the direction of their argument. On average, their statements are in line with their political party's ideology, reflected in a preference for more equity or efficiency, respectively. However, the commonalities between the reference target and the municipality in question determine a set of references that are accepted across party lines. Second, we use this set of determinants to impute the network links as perceived by local politicians. Drawing upon a plausibly exogenous shock that affects a subset of peers, we analyze how tax reforms propagate in this network.

Third-party Reporting and the Platform Economy with Philipp Dörrenberg, Christin Schmidt and Christoph Spengel. | Available upon request. | Abstract

This paper presents descriptive evidence on economic activity reported under DAC7, the European Union's newly introduced third-party reporting regime for online marketplaces. Using novel administrative data from Germany, we study platform-mediated sales between businesses and consumers as well as among peers. We document the scale, composition, and distribution of online marketplace participation and sales across platforms and seller types. The analysis provides a comprehensive empirical characterization of activity reported under DAC7 and establishes a baseline for future research and policy evaluation.

Teaching

Supervision of Bachelor, Master and Seminar Theses, Supervisor
University of Mannheim, Different Semesters
Evaluations (German, scale: 1 = best): Different semesters.

Hands-On Python: An Introduction with Application Examples, Lecturer
University of Mannheim, Spring 2026
Evaluations (German, scale: 1 = best): 2026.

Fundamentals of Financial Accounting, Teaching Assistant
University of Mannheim, Spring 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025
Evaluations (German, scale: 1 = best): 2021 (not conducted), 2023, 2024, 2025 (Group 1), 2025 (Group 2).

Socially Responsible Accounting and Taxation, Guest Lecturer
Mannheim Business School, Spring 2023
Evaluations: No evaluation conducted.

Teaching Grant

Accounting & Tax Business Simulation (Computer Game) Grant Recipient – University of Mannheim, 2023–2025. More.

Accounting business simulation visual Accounting business simulation visual

As a team, we developed an interactive, computer game-based learning module to enhance engagement and conceptual understanding in financial accounting courses. Students play a computer opponent and take business decisions. They are in-game incentivized to conduct correct bookkeeping. We pilot the game in the Fundamentals of Financial Accounting course at the University of Mannheim with around 800 students per year.

We report on our results here (open-access, German):

Spielend lernen im digitalen Raum,
with M. Friedrich-Schieback. die hochschullehre, 37(1), 180–187, 2026.

Entwicklung und Anwendung des Lernspiels GeR Gamified für eine BWL-Grundlagen­veranstaltung,
with Andreas Reitzig, Ute Hager, Samuel Wissel, and Sabrina Navratil. In: Marina Friedrich-Schieback, Melanie Klinger, Niko Baldus (Hg.), Freiräume für innovative digitale Lehre: Gestaltungsprozesse, Lehrprojekte, Reflexionen. wbv Verlag, Bielefeld, 2026.

Funded by the University of Mannheim’s Teaching Innovation Program and Stiftung Innovation in der Hochschullehre.

Policy Work

Rethinking Anti-Tax Avoidance Measures in the European Union with C. Spengel, A. Göbel, E. Geschossmann, H. Gundert, F. Jungmann, D. Käshammer, C. Kindler, A. Pfrang, T. T. Porebski, C. Schmidt, K. Schmidt, I. Schulz, J. Spix, S. Weck, S. Wickel und S. Winter. ZEW Discussion Paper No. 26-002, 2026.

QDMTTs Leave Geographic Disparity Between Increased Pillar Two Costs and Revenues with S. Bray, D. Bunn, and C. Spengel. ZEW Policy Brief No. 25-13, 2025.

Mannheim Tax Index Update 2024 – Effective Tax Levels using the Devereux/Griffith Methodology with C. Spengel, J. Heckemeyer, K. Nicolay, H. Gundert, J. Spix, D. Steinbrenner, S. Weck, and S. Wickel. MannheimTaxation Database, 2025.

Deutschland im internationalen Steuerwettbewerb: Auswirkungen aktueller Reformansätze with C. Spengel, K. Nicolay, D. Steinbrenner, H. Gundert, J. Spix, S. Weck, and S. Wickel. Der Betrieb, 77(19), 1158–1163, 2024.

Die globale Mindeststeuer – Kosten und Nutzen aus deutscher Sicht with C. Spengel, D. Klein, J. M. Müller, A. Pfrang, I. Schulz, S. Winter, S. Weck, and S. Wickel. Der Betrieb, 76(1), Beilage 01, 1–14, 2023.

Significant Costs, Limited Benefits: A Global Minimum Tax in Germany with D. Klein, J. M. Müller, A. Pfrang, I. Schulz, C. Spengel, S. Weck, S. Wickel, and S. Winter. ZEW Policy Brief No. 22-07, 2022.

Wie Unternehmen des Baugewerbes die Corona-Krise bewerten: German Business Panel – Branchenreport Bauindustrie (Mai 2021) with J. Bischof, P. Dörrenberg, C. Lauer, D. Rostam-Afschar, D. Simons & J. Voget. Ergebnisbericht / German Business Panel, Mannheim & TRR 266 Accounting for Transparency, 2021.

Media and Institutional Coverage of Projects

Media and Institutional Coverage of Projects